Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.363233 0.419498 0.480707 0.552123 0.633040 0.721751 0.826247
2025-10-05 0.273346 0.351603 0.445116 0.564523 0.712314 0.888561 1.113926
2025-10-12 0.229821 0.320014 0.435422 0.592645 0.799776 1.061679 1.415982
2025-10-19 0.195885 0.291504 0.421018 0.607104 0.865013 1.206816 1.690393
2025-10-26 0.168137 0.265458 0.404078 0.612746 0.914942 1.331927 1.944807
2025-11-02 0.144691 0.241226 0.385204 0.611289 0.951899 1.439102 2.179774
2025-11-09 0.124136 0.217891 0.363904 0.602394 0.975055 1.525991 2.389739
2025-11-16 0.107357 0.197866 0.344689 0.593502 0.995700 1.608681 2.597208
2025-11-23 0.091378 0.176702 0.320747 0.573750 0.996314 1.659395 2.757864
2025-11-30 0.086709 0.174515 0.327737 0.604905 1.080380 1.844400 3.137940
2025-12-07 0.075214 0.158231 0.308468 0.589144 1.084850 1.902086 3.318544
2025-12-14 0.065173 0.143209 0.289554 0.571668 1.084122 1.950066 3.484988
2025-12-21 0.056804 0.130447 0.273602 0.558369 1.090317 2.011417 3.680588
2025-12-28 0.052614 0.125678 0.272314 0.572209 1.146354 2.161963 4.038144
2026-01-04 0.050421 0.124825 0.278518 0.600782 1.231465 2.368485 4.505111
2026-01-11 0.047014 0.120780 0.277756 0.615429 1.291266 2.533450 4.908400
2026-01-18 0.043144 0.115092 0.272876 0.621142 1.334026 2.669796 5.267952
2026-01-25 0.039109 0.108381 0.264978 0.619667 1.362173 2.780348 5.586141
2026-02-01 0.034956 0.100732 0.254091 0.610662 1.374191 2.860840 5.852653
2026-02-08 0.031283 0.093701 0.243739 0.601658 1.385194 2.939585 6.119784
2026-02-15 0.027337 0.085296 0.229152 0.581660 1.371285 2.968383 6.292112
2026-02-22 0.026842 0.086206 0.236908 0.613204 1.469732 3.225623 6.923223
2026-03-01 0.023750 0.079324 0.224770 0.597246 1.463477 3.271450 7.139043